Update on the deadly Covid-19 vaccine coverup -- Plus, how to estimate risk better than the CDC
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Note on charts: All charts, graphs & tables in this paper are my original work. All have a creative commons license and may be shared for educational purposes, as long as they are not altered, including the credit to virginiastoner.com.
Note on the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS): Never assume that reports to VAERS prove the vaccine caused the injury—they don’t. And, never assume the vaccine didn’t cause the injury, either—because that would be foolish. Notice how the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) reminds us of the first thing all the time, but never the second? That’s because they want us to make that foolish assumption.
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More deaths have been reported to VAERS from the covid shots than from all other vaccines combined for the last 30 years.
More deaths have been reported to VAERS from the covid shots than from all other vaccines combined for the last 30 years, as shown in the chart above (1). Don’t expect to hear this stunning fact on the evening news, or read about it in a CDC advisory or covid shot consent form.
There are no CDC or FDA papers assuring us the massive increase in deaths reported to VAERS from the covid shots is nothing to worry about. In fact, they have carefully avoided the topic altogether—the official position is silence. Like the consultants in Office Space, the CDC likes to avoid confrontation whenever possible. They may not be able to fix this particular glitch—but it sure helps if no one knows about it.
There’s a code of silence shielding the massive increase in deaths (and other serious injuries) reported to VAERS from the covid shots. Not only do CDC web pages and press releases omit that inconvenient fact—vaccine research studies omit it as well.
For example, in mid-January, a published, peer-reviewed safety study by CDC researcher Julianne Gee found 113 deaths were reported to VAERS the first month of the covid vaccine campaign. What the study didn’t mention was that 113 deaths was unprecedented, far more reports than VAERS had ever received in a month before, and 9-times higher than usual. Instead, Gee & comrades speculated that 113 deaths might actually be a very good thing (2). I suppose it was—compared to the hundreds of death reports rolling into VAERS nowadays (3).
CDC researcher Tom Shimabukuro reminded us in mid-January that VAERS is “the nation’s early warning system for vaccine safety.” It identifies possible vaccine dangers, in part by identifying “disproportional reporting.” It therefore seems natural to have some curiosity about how VAERS has responded to the huge influx of adverse event reports. Unfortunately, we don’t know because Shimabukuro upheld the code of silence, while dancing around the issue of death altogether. He also said VAERS hadn’t detected any problems—but, surprise—there were no details explaining how that was statistically possible. (4)
But wait—this just in! On August 10, the CDC posted a new report by a slew of doctors, telling us the risks of the covid shots are worth it (5)! Finally, some objective investigators examined the massive increase in deaths reported to VAERS from the covid shots, and explained why it’s nothing to worry about…right?
Lol. Hardly. In spite of the dizzying list of authors with impressive letters after their names, not one of them mentioned the massive increase in deaths reported to VAERS from the covid shots. All they did was blather about a handful of blood clot reports while covering up hundreds; regurgitate propaganda they pretended was science, and add a notch to their curricula vitae. Kudos, team!
The troubling silence of the CDC and FDA hasn’t stopped industry trolls and internet ‘fact-checkers’ from leaping to the defense of the covid shots. A couple of the most popular benign explanations can be easily disproven:
First, the massive increase in deaths reported to VAERS was not caused by more vaccination
“It’s the largest vaccine campaign in history—of course adverse event reports are up!” This common claim, that administering massive numbers of vaccines is responsible for the massive increase in deaths reported to VAERS, is baseless, as the chart below illustrates. (6)
As we’ve already seen, the influx of VAERS death reports began soon after the covid vaccine campaign started in December 2020. Deaths reported to VAERS exploded in January 2021, when the number of vaccines administered this year was still very low. The number of covid shots administered so far in 2021 (309 million) is roughly the same as all other vaccines administered in 2020 (316 million). But a shocking 36-times more deaths were reported this year from the covid shots than were reported last year from all other vaccines.
Second, the fact that “anyone can report to VAERS,” and “reports to VAERS don’t prove the vaccine caused the injury,” describe inherent limitations of the VAERS system—they aren’t “explanations” for the massive increase in death reports from the covid shots, because they’ve been around as long as VAERS has. Nothing about the limitations of VAERS has changed recently to account for the massive increase in death reports. You might decide to give VAERS data less weight because of its limitations, but the massive increase in death reports from covid shots is still a true statement of fact that remains officially unexplained.
How to calculate risk better than the CDC
While the CDC steers clear of the fact that death reports are higher than they’ve ever been in VAERS 30+year history, it does acknowledge the current death count from covid shots: 6,340 deaths reported from 342 million vaccines as of July 26 (PRE-PUB UPDATE: 6,490 deaths reported from 346 million vaccines as of August 2.) (6)
The CDC also gives us a percent risk that a covid shot will result in a death report to VAERS (0.0019%). This kind of risk calculation is common in epidemiology, and the CDC uses it a lot. “Risk” can also be called “probability” or “chance,” depending on what’s being measured; they’re all basically the same thing. I’m going to go over how to calculate this risk—it’s easy as long as you know addition, subtraction, multiplication & division—or you have a calculator that does.
Then, I’m going to explain why this method of risk calculation vastly underestimates vaccine risk, and try to do a little better.
Formulas for estimating risk
In this case, % risk is calculated by dividing the number of VAERS death reports (6,340) by the number of covid shots administered (342 million). The result is a risk ratio of .000019, which by convention is often multiplied by 100 to turn it into a percent risk (0.0019%).
Often, it’s clearer to express risk as “1 in x”—for example, 1 in 54,000. I think it’s a lot easier to intuitively understand than % risk, in most cases. To calculate this risk, divide the number of vaccines (342 million) by the number of death reports (6,340).
Some of the covid shots recommend 2 doses of vaccine, and that doubles the risk of a death report to VAERS. To calculate the risk that at least one death report will be filed from multiple vaccine doses, add the risks of each vaccine dose together:
On its own, “0.0019%” sounds like a very small risk—we’ve even been primed to think that by its description as “rare” in bold letters. But the risk is not rare in comparison to other (non-covid) vaccines, which have a much lower per vaccine risk. BUT, bear in mind the childhood vaccine schedule contains more than 50 vaccines—which means 50 more opportunities for death.
We know from the chart above called “Vaccines administered and deaths reported to VAERS” that in 2019, a fairly typical year, 181 deaths were reported to VAERS from an estimated 300 million other (non-covid) vaccines – a risk of 0.00006%. This works out to a risk of about 1 in 1.7 million.
How do these risks compare to something objective and familiar, like rolling dice? Say you have 6 dice you’re going to roll all at the same time. What is the probability that all the dice will land on 3? There is a 1 in 6 chance of rolling a 3 for each die. To calculate the chance that all of them will land on 3, multiply the probabilities for each die together:
It’s useful to know how to calculate these risks because in general, the higher the risk, the vaguer the CDC’s description of it—if they mention it at all. They may also omit information necessary to calculate the risk, like the number of vaccines administered. Consider this description of the risk of an allergic reaction (anaphylaxis) which the CDC again describes as “rare” in bold letters (6):
“Anaphylaxis after COVID-19 vaccination is rare and has occurred in approximately 2 to 5 people per million vaccinated in the United States.”
Who understands what an “approximately 2 to 5 per million” risk means? A better way to say it (although still vague) is: “The risk ranges from a low of about 1 in 500,000 to a high of 1 in 200,000.” To get that range, divide the number of vaccines (1,000,000) by 2 to get 500,000, and by 5 to get 200,000.
This chart compares the risks we just went over. Notice vaccine risk doubles when a second dose is added. Imagine what happens when the risk of 50 childhood vaccines is added.
Using raw VAERS reports to estimate risk—which the CDC often does—is convenient, but misleading because it vasty underestimates risk. People don’t really care about VAERS reports anyway—they care about their risk of death or serious injury from vaccination. Which brings us to the elephant in the room…
Most vaccine injuries are not reported to VAERS
Only a small fraction of vaccine injuries are reported to VAERS, according to the VAERS website, which is jointly managed by the CDC and FDA: (8)
"’Underreporting’ is one of the main limitations of passive surveillance systems, including VAERS. The term, underreporting refers to the fact that VAERS receives reports for only a small fraction of actual adverse events. The degree of underreporting varies widely. … more serious and unexpected medical events are probably more likely to be reported than minor ones, especially when they occur soon after vaccination, even if they may be coincidental and related to other causes.”
Other sources, such as a 2010 study by Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Inc., estimate the reporting rate is less than 1%--meaning the vast majority of vaccine injuries are never reported to VAERS: (9)
“Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. Low reporting rates preclude or
slow the identification of “problem” drugs and vaccines that endanger public health.”
The CDC conveys a false impression that most deaths are reported to VAERS, by claiming that “FDA requires healthcare providers to report any death after COVID-19 vaccination to VAERS, even if it’s unclear whether the vaccine was the cause.”
What the CDC doesn’t tell us is, first of all, there’s no penalty for not reporting, so it’s really not “required.” Second, they don’t tell us most vaccine providers aren’t going to know if their customers die, unless they happen to do it in the 15- to 30-minute monitoring period after the shot—which is extremely rare. Unless…
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A phone rings—Mary Patterson, 72, answers. Mary is the proud recipient of 2 Moderna covid shots from Dan’s Drive-Thru Jabs (formerly Dan’s Do-it-Yourself Septic). On the phone is Dan, who’s been calling Mary every week since her last jab, to confirm she’s still alive.
“Mrs. Patterson? This is Dan from Dan’s Jabs. I’m just calling to see if you’re still alive. As a vaccine provider, we’re required to report any deaths after covid vaccination to VAERS.
“How sweet of you to ask, young man. Yes, I’m still alive—although I’ve been feeling a bit tired lately. Last night I couldn’t even keep up with my little doggie, Jake. My doctor says…
“Yes, yes—I’m sure it’s trying. Can I call you again next week to verify your mortality status, Mrs. Patterson?
“Of course, dear. Call for the rest of my life, if you like.”
***
Finally, we’re not told there’s basically infinite discretion for medical providers to file, or not file, a VAERS report. Let’s see…filing a VAERS report takes a lot of time no one is paid for. Someone died from a vaccine they administered…could it potentially call their professional judgment into question, or result in a malpractice lawsuit? If you were a doctor, or supervisor at a drive-thru covid vaccination clinic, and you were given a choice between spending the evening filing a VAERS report, or having dinner with friends, which would you choose?
There are reasons to think death may be one of the most underreported vaccine injuries of all—mainly because the victim is dead, and can’t file a VAERS report. Nor can they prod their doctor into filing a VAERS report. Unless they’re fortunate enough to have a relative or doctor who knows they got the vaccine, knows about VAERS, understands the potential for vaccine injury, and is willing to go through the onerous process of filing a VAERS report, it won’t happen.
Other problems with risk estimation
Calculating risk is also complicated by the fact that some deaths reported to VAERS could be coincidental—but no one really knows how many. The CDC likes to pretend almost all deaths reported to VAERS are coincidental— as if it’s a presumption unless ruled out. They also like to pretend no vaccines cause injury in the Vaccine Injury Compensation Program (VICP). That’s about as probable as 20 dice all rolling a 3: 1 in 3,656,158,440,062,976 (3.7 gazillion?) – with a % risk so small, it’s a virtual impossibility.
Risk increases as the % of vaccine injuries reported to VAERS decreases
For purposes of the chart below, I’m following the CDC’s lead in reverse, and pretending that no deaths reported to VAERS were coincidental—it was just too complicated to include that variable. The chart illustrates how the risk of death increases as the percentage of deaths reported to VAERS decreases, because there are more unseen deaths to account for.
On this chart, “100%” means all vaccine-related deaths were reported to VAERS—something that pretty much everyone agrees isn’t possible. It’s the risk the CDC calculated for death reports from covid shots, which was .0019%, or about 1 in 54,000.
Most people would probably estimate the percentage of adverse events filed in VAERS to be 10% or less—the circled area on the chart. “10%” means there were 10 deaths for every 1 reported to VAERS; “1%” means there were 100 deaths for every 1 reported. That increases the risk a lot, because the number of deaths goes up while the number of vaccines stays the same.
That means the risk of death from a covid shot could realistically be 1 in 5,394; or 1 in 539, or even higher than that—a much higher risk than the mere risk of a VAERS death report, which is about 1 in 54,000. And the death risk for other vaccines may be 1 in 16,575 or even higher, instead of 1 in 1.7 million. (And, again, it’s only 1 of 50 recommended vaccines.)
Theoretically, of course. Estimating risk is always theoretical.
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NOTES:
(1) Chart: Deaths reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS). Two VAERS searches were done: one for all deaths reported from all vaccines; another limiting the search to death reports from covid shots. Then covid vaccine deaths were subtracted from all deaths to find the number of deaths from other (non-covid) vaccines. Instructions for these VAERS searches:
a. Go to the CDC Wonder page, click “I agree” at the bottom of the page, then click “VAERS Data Search”.
b. You will be taken to the Request Form tab. In section 1, choose Group Results by “Year Reported”; in section 5, select Event Category “Death”; leave everything else on the default settings.
c. Click “Send”. That will take you to the Results tab, showing all deaths reported to VAERS for all vaccines in the US since 1990.
d. To limit the search to deaths from covid vaccines, return to the Request Form tab. In section 3, select Vaccine Product “COVID19 (COVID19 VACCINE)”. Leave everything else as it was for the first search.
e. Click “Send” again. That will take you to the Results tab, showing all deaths reported to VAERS from the covid shots.
(2) Gee J, Marquez P, Su J, et al. First Month of COVID-19 Vaccine Safety Monitoring — United States, December 14, 2020–January 13, 2021. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep 2021;70:283–288. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.15585/mmwr.mm7008e3
(3) Chart: Deaths reported to VAERS from COVID19 vaccines as of July 28, 2021 (by month).
(4) COVID-19 vaccine safety update, Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices (ACIP) January 27, 2021, Tom Shimabukuro, MD, MPH, MBACDC COVID-19 Vaccine Task Force Vaccine Safety Team, https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-01/06-COVID-Shimabukuro.pdf
(5) Use of COVID-19 Vaccines After Reports of Adverse Events Among Adult Recipients of Janssen (Johnson & Johnson) and mRNA COVID-19 Vaccines (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna): Update from the Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices — United States, July 2021 Early Release / August 10, 2021 / 70 https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7032e4.htm
(6) Chart: Vaccines Administered and Deaths Reported to VAERS, January 2014 – July 2021.
a. See Note 1 re vaccine death report data.
b. Population data (used to estimate the number of other vaccines administered): US Census Bureau data was used for the years 2014-2020. For 2021, 2020 data was used.
i. 2014: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=census%20age%202014-2020&tid=ACSST1Y2014.S0101
ii. 2015: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=population%20by%20age%202015&tid=ACSST1Y2015.S0101
iii. 2016: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=age%20%26%20sex%202016&tid=ACSST1Y2016.S0101
iv. 2017: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=age%20%26%20sex%202017&tid=ACSST1Y2017.S0101
v. 2018: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=age%20%26%20sex%202018&tid=ACSST1Y2018.S0101
vi. 2019: https://data.census.gov/cedsci/table?q=age%20%26%20sex%202020&tid=ACSST1Y2019.S0101
vii. 2020: https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2020/demo/popest/2020-demographic-analysis-tables.html
viii. Age data was consolidated into 3 uniform groups of Age 0-17, Age 18-64 & Age 65+. The Census Bureau uses a 0-19 age range, and no adjustments were made for that.
c. COVID-19 vaccines administered: It was estimated that 5% of the total covid shots were administered in 2020, and 95% in 2021. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#vaccination-demographic
d. Other (non-covid) vaccines administered:
i. The CDC's estimated rate of flu vaccination for 2010-2020 was used to estimate the rate of all vaccinations. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/fluvaxview/coverage-1920estimates.htm
ii. For estimation purposes, it was assumed that people who received the flu vaccine were also fully vaccinated according to the CDC schedule.
iii. Minimum recommended vaccines for each age group were divided among the years in the age group to estimate yearly vaccine consumption:
1. Age 0-17: 18 flu shots + 35 other shots = 53 / 18 = 2.94 per year.
2. Age 18-64: 47 flu shots + 12 more recommended for everyone (18 more for some) = 47 + 12 = 59 / 47 = 1.26 per year.
3. Age 65+: Est. age at death=79; 15 flu shots + 5 more recommended for all (18 more recommended for some) = 15 + 5 = 20 / 15 = 1.33 per year.
iv. CDC’s child and adolescent vaccine schedule: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/child-adolescent.html
v. CDC’s adult vaccine schedule: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/schedules/hcp/imz/adult.html
(7) Selected Adverse Events Reported after COVID-19 Vaccination, https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/safety/adverse-events.html
(9) Electronic Support for Public Health–Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (ESP:VAERS) , Lazarus, Ross, MBBS, MPH, MMed, GDCompSci & Michael Klompas, MD, MPH, Harvard Pilgrim Health Care, Inc., Inclusive dates: 12/01/07 - 09/30/10. https://digital.ahrq.gov/sites/default/files/docs/publication/r18hs017045-lazarus-final-report-2011.pdf
“Adverse events from drugs and vaccines are common, but underreported. Although 25% of
ambulatory patients experience an adverse drug event, less than 0.3% of all adverse drug events
and 1-13% of serious events are reported to the Food and Drug Administration (FDA).
Likewise, fewer than 1% of vaccine adverse events are reported. Low reporting rates preclude or
slow the identification of “problem” drugs and vaccines that endanger public health. New
surveillance methods for drug and vaccine adverse effects are needed. Barriers to reporting
include a lack of clinician awareness, uncertainty about when and what to report, as well as the
burdens of reporting: reporting is not part of clinicians’ usual workflow, takes time, and is
duplicative. Proactive, spontaneous, automated adverse event reporting imbedded within EHRs
and other information systems has the potential to speed the identification of problems with new
drugs and more careful quantification of the risks of older drugs.” – Page 6