Writing

Writings on social engineering and other things

by Virginia “Ginny” Stoner, MA, JD

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Posts tagged estimating risk
Estimated risk of death from covid vaccination -- December 14, 2020, thru August 23, 2021

The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) uses death report data from the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS) to estimate the risk of covid vaccination. The problem with estimating risk from the raw number of VAERS death reports is that most vaccine injuries aren’t reported to VAERS—which means it vastly underestimates the true risk. Here, I try to do better.

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Estimating the risk of covid vaccination

Estimates of risk are theoretical constructs—they aren’t predictions of the future. This isn’t science—it’s more like a thought experiment. These estimates of risk are based on deaths and serious injuries reported to the Vaccine Adverse Event Reporting System (VAERS); the number of vaccines administered; and the percent of vaccine injuries reported to VAERS.

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