Mortality is a number, not a belief
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One of the main motivations behind the creation of my CVax Risk page was that I repeatedly heard conflicting claims in the media about US mortality, excess deaths and VAERS reports. I was tired of hearing opinions and vague references about the numbers—I wanted to see the actual numbers. Now, I personally use the CVax Risk page all the time to quickly verify death numbers claimed in the media—and in my experience, vague, misleading and false information about US mortality is the norm, not the exception.
One reason for this conflicting information is a strange phenomenon whereby people who should know better think mortality and excess deaths are matters of belief and opinion, rather than matters of numbers and math. The Centers for Disease Control (CDC) has kept track of US deaths for many years, and the data is freely available to the public in the WONDER database.
Naturally, there’s always room for debate about things like how complete and reliable the WONDER database is, and how legitimate the listed causes of death are. However, the question of what deaths are recorded in the database is an entirely factual matter, with answers that can be determined with absolute certainty by searching the database.
WONDER has a lot of search options, yet it’s still pretty easy for beginners to perform simple searches. Even so, whether out of ignorance, laziness or corruption, a shocking number of journalists either don’t bother to consult the US WONDER database before inflicting us with their opinions about mortality; or they consult WONDER, but conceal the numbers because they conflict with their chosen narrative.
I recently wrote about a retracted Johns Hopkins newsletter article that is frequently touted in alternative media as evidence there were no excess deaths in 2020. It’s a claim that is common among those exposing the dangers of COVID19 vaccines, and among those disputing the existence of the alleged SARS-COV-2 virus. While both these issues are 100% legitimate, IMO, that does not change the mortality data, which shows there was an unprecedented increase in deaths in 2020 starting in late March or early April. I concluded the Johns Hopkins article was propaganda (along with the retraction), because although it appeared the author may have consulted WONDER, he concealed excess deaths by making vague, misleading and false statements about the data.
Journalist Eric Coppolino recently revealed a truly baffling belief that, because the science shows no SARS-COV-2 virus exists (which is true), there could not have been a pandemic (which is true), and therefore, there could not have been excess deaths in 2020 (which is crazy). Apparently in Mr. Coppolino’s world, if a meteor squished a half million people in 2020, or infrasound caused the organs of a half million people to fail, there wouldn’t be any excess deaths. As readers of this blog know, we are looking for SOMETHING ELSE, probably a combination of things including the COVID19 vaccines, that have killed more than 1.7 million people over the last 3 years, based on a comparison to historical mortality data.
(01:01:39): “Now you, and everyone else, can believe what they want, but science is not about belief. Science is about what the, the studies say, and whether that is accurate and provable and, and stands up to any criticism. And if there is no test, and if the lack of a test indicates the lack of a virus then there was no pandemic. And if there was no pandemic…then I know…I mean I’ve seen, I, I’ve seen, you know, 20-30 people cock their hip, and put their fist against their hip, and they say to me [snarky] “so what killed a million people?” It’s like, well, uh, you know, something like 3000 Americans die every day. It’s not long before a mil…a million people a year die anyway in the United States. I think it’s something like 3500 a day on average, that would, that would come out to about a million at the end of a year. Uh, actually, uh, check that, more than 7500 people a day die in the United States, and at the end of a year that would be about 2.5 million people...”
See the CVax Risk page for the source of this data.
So, science is not about belief, it’s about what the studies say; but mortality numbers are about belief, not about what the database says. It’s apparent Mr. Coppolino didn’t consult WONDER or any other established source of mortality data before claiming there were no excess deaths in 2020, since according to WONDER, there were a lot of them. But he’s astonished by learned people who won’t review the science against virology:
(01:20:00): “This is a very, very serious problem, and I am astonished at the people who are regarded as intellectual titans, uh, who, who then attempt to brush off, not this subject, but the evidence that it must be confronted. How can someone pretend that 215 governments have not sent these responses saying we do not have a study saying that this stuff has ever been found in a person? Someone can cock their hip, and put their fist on their hip all they want, and say, “What killed a million people?” And I’ll tell you that a million people drop dead every 3 months in the, in the United States of America. Get over yourself—uh, these are all recategorized deaths.”
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CORRECTION: Eric Coppolino submitted the following correction on July 12, 2023: “An accurate statement of my position is: Due to the lack of a virus or syndrome, any excess deaths in 2020 were caused by mitigation measures, needless medical intervention, and the shutdown of society.”
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So, here I am, cocking my hip, possibly getting a kink because I don’t usually cock it, putting my fist on my hip, and shouting to whoever might be interested, “WHAT KILLED 1.7 MILLION PEOPLE?” How can someone pretend the mortality data doesn’t show hundreds of thousands more people died than usual in the US in 2020-2022?
Do bear in mind that excess deaths can be calculated different ways, resulting in different numbers. For calculating excess deaths in 2020-2022, I’ve used either a stable 5-year average from 2015-2019 for comparison, or 2019 alone, which results in a more conservative estimate, since 2019 was the highest year for deaths prior to 2020. The CDC, as I recall, uses a rolling 5-year average, which results in much lower excess death numbers, for reasons I’ve previously explained—in short, it neutralizes years with an exceptionally high number of deaths by averaging them in with years with fewer deaths. So when you hear excess death numbers, it’s important to pay attention to how they are calculated.
I hope everyone and their mother will bookmark my CVax Risk page and share it widely, so the next time you hear mortality and excess death numbers, you aren’t at the mercy of beliefs and opinions.